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International Monetary Fund improves economic growth forecast for CIS countries

International Monetary Fund improves economic growth forecast for CIS countries

The IMF said it was the "broadest synchronized global growth upsurge since 2010" when the world enjoyed a strong, but ultimately fleeting, snapback from the financial crisis.

As a result, it revised up its global growth forecast for 2018 and 2019 by 0.2 per cent to 3.9 per cent, noting the revision reflected increased global growth momentum and the expected impact of the recently approved tax policy changes in the US.

It says the growth momentum is expected to carry into 2018 and 2019, and it has revised upwards its global growth forecasts by 0.2 percentage points for both years, from 3.7% to 3.9%.

The body also said recently-implemented United States tax cuts would stimulate growth, adding 1.2% to the world's biggest economy by 2020 - though due to the temporary nature of the some of the policies it would lower growth from 2022 onwards. It pegged GDP growth rate at 7.4% in 2018 and 7.8% in 2019.

The stronger outlook was attributed to the stronger momentum in domestic demand and higher external demand. This is very welcome news. One-fifth of emerging and developing countries have seen ir per capita income fall by 2017. Consistent with these plans, the country's ongoing and necessary rebalancing process implies lower future growth, Obstfeld said at a news conference in Davos. "The effects of the package on output in the United States and its trading partners contribute about half of the cumulative revision to global growth over 2018-19".

"Rich asset valuations and very compressed term premiums raise the possibility of a financial market correction, which could dampen growth and confidence." the International Monetary Fund said.

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Further growth of 3.5% is anticipated in 2019 on the back of a modest upgrade to the growth forecast for Nigeria while not much growth is expected from South Africa.

According to the report, which was released in Davos on Monday, world growth is expected to exceed 2% in 2018 and 2019. Purchasing managers' indices indicate firm manufacturing activity ahead, consistent with strong consumer confidence pointing to healthy final demand.

The most consequential part of the US tax-code change will be the lowering of corporate-income tax rates, which should lead to an acceleration of business investment, the International Monetary Fund said. A possible trigger is a faster-than-expected increase in advanced economy core inflation and interest rates as demand accelerates.

Current upswing in the global economy "furnishes an ideal moment to act on a range of multilateral challenges", Obstfeld said.

The survey will come as a booster for Prime Minister Narendra Modi who will court global investors on Monday and Tuesday in a bid to get more investment into the country, especially in the manufacturing sector, which has remained sluggish and is crucial to job creation. "In an environment of financial market optimism, ensuring financial resilience is imperative".

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