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ADB forecasts fiscal deficit at 3.8 percent in FY17

ADB forecasts fiscal deficit at 3.8 percent in FY17

Economic growth in Kazakhstan in 2017 is forecast to rise reflecting continued fiscal spending for consumption and investment and higher earnings from oil exports, the Asia Development Bank (ADB) said in Asian Development Outlook 2017: Transcending the Middle-Income Challenge.

The ADB's latest forecast is, however, slightly lower than its estimate in the supplement to its Asian Development Outlook 2016 Update report in December previous year, where it pegged GDP growth at 7.8 per cent this fiscal.

In India, the sub-region's largest economy, growth is expected to pick up to 7.4 per cent in fiscal year 2017 and 7.6 per cent in 2018, following the 7.1 per cent registered in the last fiscal year.

ADB Chief Economist Yasuyuki Sawada pointed out that "Asia Pacific will still account for an estimated 60 percent of global economic growth" in the years ahead despite the region - and particularly China - adjusting to a more consumption-driven model.

Inflation is forecast to accelerate to 8.0% in 2017 - reflecting higher liquidity as troubled banks are recapitalized, rising electricity tariffs and the cost of other public services, and continued currency depreciation - before easing back to 7.0% in 2018.

Average inflation is forecast to rise from 2.1 per cent in 2016 to 3.3 per cent this year, edging up further to 3.5 per cent next year. Exports continued to decline in the third consecutive years due to waning global demand and weak worldwide commodity prices as well as domestic structural issues, such power outages and lack of investment in modernisation and currency appreciation in real effective terms.

However, the ADB pointed to risks to its rosier outlook, including higher USA interest rates and rising household debt in some Asian economies.

Seoul: North Korea fires ballistic missile off east coast
Wednesday's missile appeared to be a KN-15, or Pukkuksong-2, a land-based version of the submarine-launched ballistic missile. South Korea is protected under an American security umbrella and is home to thousands of USA troops.

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Requiring urban water suppliers to prepare water shortage contingency plans, including a drought risk assessment every five years. Water is life for California's $47 billion farming industry, which grows almost half the nation's fruits, nuts and vegetables.

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"Strong economic growth in 2016 is expected to carry on in 2017 and 2018, thanks to continuous acceleration of investment and consumption", said ADB principal country specialist Joven Balbosa in a briefing yesterday.

Sawada said the region faces "risks from uncertain policy direction in the advanced economies, including the pace of interest rate normalization in the United States".

"To support private sector development and sustained growth, Tajikistan needs urgent reforms to revive its banking and financial sectors", said B. Chansavat, ADB's acting Country Director for Tajikistan. Exports are forecast to grow by six per cent in the coming year.

In its Asian Development Outlook 2017, ADB identified possible trade and investment protectionism by industrial economies would impact foreign direct investments, business process outsourcing revenues, and remittances in the country. Overall output is expected to slow to 6.5% in 2017 and 6.2% in 2018, down from 2016's 6.7%.

Despite the 23.5% rise in jobs overseas for Bangladeshi workers in the first 6 months of FY2017, remittances are expected to sink further by 7.0% in FY2017 and 4.0 percent in FY2018.

For Pakistan, CPEC is expected to be a major opportunity to boost growth and development.

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